How Birmingham Women’s and Children’s Hospital Charity Achieved a 6:1 ROI on Its Christmas Appeal Using Predictive Targeting

Birmingham Women’s and Children’s Hospital Charity (BWCHC) exists to support some of the UK’s bravest children and families. The charity’s fundraising team helps fund world-class care at the leading specialist paediatric centre.

The Christmas appeal is one of the most important campaigns of the year. In their 2025 December appeal, the team used Dataro’s predictive donor rankings and ask amount recommendations to sharpen their direct mail targeting.

The result: a 6:1 ROI (up from 2:1 the previous year) while mailing 50% fewer supporters.

The Challenge: Growing Pains and Data Complexity

BWCHC's rapidly expanding database posed a common "good problem": more supporters than ever, but low clarity on how to reach them effectively.

"Our database is growing quickly, but we know that not every ask is the right ask for all supporters," explained the BWCHC fundraising team. "We were looking to make better-informed decisions for direct mail and legacy prospects."

Traditional segmentation methods required early test pulls; lists were locked months before a campaign dropped, preventing fine-tuning in the critical weeks leading up to the go live date. The team also struggled to confidently identify which supporters wanted to hear from them via direct mail versus other channels—creating both inefficiency and uncertainty.

The Strategy: Predictive Targeting and Ask Amount Optimisation

To gain greater precision at scale, BWCHC integrated Dataro’s AI-powered predictive modelling into their direct mail planning.

The approach centred on three key pillars:

• Predictive segmentation: BWCHC identified supporters most likely to respond. Using Dataro’s donor propensity rankings, the team cut mailing volume by more than 50%, while increasing total income.

• Ask amount optimisation: Rather than defaulting to static, conservative ask amounts, the team implemented Dataro’s AI-recommended gift values—tailored to each supporter’s predicted giving capacity. These suggested ask amounts shifted the strategy from matching past behavior to calculating future potential.

• Multi-channel reinforcement: For high-ranked donors flagged as "non-mailable," the team activated alternate channels, including personalized emails and a targeted Thankathon. This allowed BWCHC to continue building relationships with donors who wanted to stay in touch, while respecting communication preferences.

The Results: A 3x ROI Christmas Breakthrough

The 2025 Christmas appeal proved the impact of the AI-driven approach, setting new benchmarks across every aspect of fundraising efficiency in mere weeks.

• 3x ROI increase: jumping from 2:1 in 2024 to 6:1 with Dataro in 2025

• Response rate more than doubled: climbing from 4.9% to 11.38%

• Higher value gifts: average gift increased from £41 to £52.56.

• Over-target total impact: raised £24,515, proving that sending less mail to the right people is far more effective than mass appeals.

Less List Building, More Meaningful Donor Engagement

The benefits of automating predictive segmentation extended well beyond campaign results. The approach reduced operational strain, freeing the fundraising team to reclaim valuable planning time.

“We are much more efficient in campaign planning as we no longer have to pull test data months before booking in a mailing,” emphasised the team.

The Thankathon invite also revealed an unexpected upside: prioritised supporters welcomed the personal calls, leading to what the team described as “gorgeous conversations” that strengthened long-term relationships.

The Future: Scaling Success

Following the success of their direct mail programme, BWCHC plans to expand Dataro’s predictive targeting to:

• Regular Giving (RG)

• Mid-value and major donor propositions

• A refined raffle strategy

For BWCHC, AI is no longer experimental. It’s become a core fundraising capability—informing who to prioritise, what to ask, and how to strengthen relationships for a more sustainable future.